← Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
Water FractalTier 1
at Ember Rest - Store Championship - 07FEB2026
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
73.9%
avg ELO +15.3 per match
expected value
56.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1497
· median 1497
· range 1497–1497
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1097
Q1 1351
Q3 1474
1616
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 15.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Water Genbu | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.0% | +24.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.9% | +25.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
